Mesoscale Discussion 1086
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0624 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

   Areas affected...portions of northern Ohio

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310...311...

   Valid 152324Z - 160030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310, 311
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong storms including a persistent supercell may
   continue to pose an isolated severe risk for a few more hours across
   northern Ohio. Damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado are
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2320 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a
   cluster of strong to severe storms over southern Lake Erie, and a
   persistent supercell ongoing across Ottawa and Sandusky counties in
   northwestern Ohio. Ahead of a mid-level speed max, these storms have
   intensified over the last hour with several reports of large hail
   and a confirmed tornado. The severe risk may continue for another
   few hours as storms continue eastward along the southern shore of
   Lake Erie into north-central and northeastern OH. Around 1000 J/kg
   of MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of effective shear observed from area VADs
   will continue to support updraft organization with a multi-cell and
   supercell mode. Storm organization is especially likely near the
   coast where the lake breeze may result in low-level updraft
   enhancement. Damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat
   given relatively modest surface dewpoints in the upper 50s F.
   However, with the persistent supercell already ongoing, some risk
   for large hail may continue. A tornado will also remain possible
   especially along the lake breeze where low-level shear and surface
   vorticity will be enhanced.

   ..Lyons/Grams.. 06/15/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...

   LAT...LON   40968366 41118382 41478345 41978295 42048188 42128140
               42108099 41918089 41628089 41338097 40738250 40758326
               40878353 40968366