Mesoscale Discussion 1066
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0646 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

   Areas affected...ArkLaMiss region eastward into west-central AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 151146Z - 151345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some uptick in storm intensity is possible with time this
   morning. Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...A few elevated supercells have persisted through the
   night from northeast LA into central MS, to the north of an
   outflow-reinforced surface boundary draped from northern LA into
   southern MS. While early-day visible imagery shows both low
   cloudiness and anvil cirrus across parts of the region, at least
   modest diurnal heating will be possible south of the ongoing
   convection, and temperatures have already risen into the mid/upper
   70s F across parts of central MS. Decreasing MLCINH may allow for
   ongoing storms to become rooted closer to the surface as they move
   east-southeastward, with MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg and strong
   deep-layer shear continuing to support both discrete and clustered
   supercells. 

   Any tendency toward more surface-based storms would result in an
   increasing damaging-wind threat, in addition to the ongoing threat
   of hail (possibly approaching 2 inches in diameter). Modestly
   enhanced low-level shear/SRH resulting from a moderate southwesterly
   low-level jet (as noted on the KDGX VWP) could also support a
   conditional threat of a tornado with any sustained surface-based
   supercell later this morning. Watch issuance is possible if ongoing
   storms persist and show indications of becoming surface-based with
   time.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/15/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33269193 33148986 32948879 32898806 32778767 32428757
               32408858 31848900 31658942 31859044 32179138 32439168
               32669180 33269193