Mesoscale Discussion 1033
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0738 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

   Areas affected...Parts of southern OK/north TX into the ArkLaTex

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141238Z - 141445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Supercell development is possible later this morning,
   though timing remains uncertain. Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...At 1230 UTC, increasing cumulus is noted on visible and
   IR imagery across northeast TX/southeast OK, which may be the
   precursor to more robust elevated thunderstorm development. Regional
   12Z soundings depict very favorable instability and shear across the
   region, with MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse
   rates, and strong effective shear in excess of 60 kt. This is
   resulting in a conditionally favorable environment for supercells,
   with an attendant threat of very large hail. 

   However, uncertainty remains regarding the timing and coverage of
   development through the morning, with stronger large-scale ascent
   likely focused north of this region. While a watch will likely be
   needed at some point later today across parts of the MCD area, the
   short-term potential remains uncertain. Watch issuance is currently
   considered possible through 15 UTC, though it will become likely if
   there is any indication of robust elevated supercell development.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/14/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34169721 34529621 34159417 33719289 33119227 32719275
               32709362 32819510 32939682 33099725 33439743 34169721