ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 132104 
SPC MCD 132104 
TXZ000-132230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1019
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0404 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Areas affected...portions of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 132104Z - 132230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A conditional severe threat may ultimately materialize
across portions of central Texas before sunset, though convective
initiation is uncertain. If storms can develop and mature,
supercells are likely, with large hail greater than 2 inches in
diameter likely. Convective trends are being monitored for the need
of a WW.

DISCUSSION...Widespread cloud cover has been giving way to
relatively greater insolation over the past few hours, resulting in
temperatures warming into the 90s F. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates,
overspreading surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F, are contributing
to extreme instability, with SBCAPE/MLCAPE exceeding
5500/4500 J/kg (per 20Z mesoanalysis). With effective bulk shear
values exceeding 65 kts (driven by strong speed shear and resultant
elongated hodographs), the ambient environment is highly supportive
of intense splitting supercells capable of producing significant
severe hail. 

However, overall forcing for ascent is expected to be modest at best
as a weak mid-level perturbation overspreads the region.
Furthermore, some capping/cloud cover remains across the warm
sector, further reducing the confidence of convective initiation, at
least in the short term. A small area of agitated cumulus has
developed just west of the moist axis in the Irion/Tom Green County
area and these cumulus are being monitored as a possible source of
convective initiation. If confidence increases in initiation, a WW
issuance may eventually be issued.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/13/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30679936 30769971 31080014 31510019 31859983 32179894
            32319825 32299758 32169736 31789720 31359729 31049766
            30739813 30599880 30679936 

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