ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 122310 
SPC MCD 122310 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-130045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1005
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0610 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Areas affected...southern Mississippi...southeast
Louisiana...southwest Alabama...and the far western Tallahassee
Panhandle.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 277...

Valid 122310Z - 130045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 277
continues.

SUMMARY...The large hail and damaging wind threat will persist for a
few more hours.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms continues south along the central
Gulf coast. This cluster has a history of some damaging wind gusts
over the past 2 hours. The environment ahead of this cluster
features 2500 to 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE with 40 to 45 knots of
effective shear. Downbursts have likely been mostly muted due to the
very moist environment and a lack of significant evaporative
cooling. However, this environment does support water loading and
the potential for more intense downbursts with the stronger storm
cores. In addition, some severe hail remains possible given the
strong instability and the moderately strong shear across the
region. Expect these storms to move into the Gulf of Mexico around
0100Z which should be well timed with the watch expiration time.

..Bentley.. 06/12/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30869182 31588994 31688807 31218696 30558699 30208785
            30319168 30869182 

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