ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 030442 
SPC MCD 030442 
TXZ000-030645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0929
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Areas affected...parts of south central Texas into adjacent portions
of the Rio Grande Valley

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 257...

Valid 030442Z - 030645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 257
continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms overspreading areas near and
southwest through south of San Antonio continues to pose a risk for
severe wind and hail.  However, this likely will gradually diminish
during the next few hours as it continues to progress
east-southeastward toward the middle Texas coastal plain.

DISCUSSION...A mesoscale convective vortex has become somewhat
better defined to the northwest of the San Antonio vicinity, and
strong southeasterly near-surface inflow has contributed to the
maintenance of vigorous convection in a narrow arcing band trailing
southwestward into the vicinity of the Rio Grande River.  Eastward
across San Antonio toward the coastal plain, increasing inhibition
associated with relatively warm and dry layers in the
lower/mid-troposphere is expected to result in weakening trends
during the next few hours.  Based on recent trends in lightning
flash rates and radar imagery, this may gradually already be
underway, but perhaps not quite as rapidly as suggested by the
convection allowing model output.

..Kerr.. 06/03/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28999941 29739843 29849742 28979669 27939905 28740019
            28999941 

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