ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 252331 
SPC MCD 252331 
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-260100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0868
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023

Areas affected...Northeast NM into the western TX/OK Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 252331Z - 260100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in storm coverage and intensity is possible
this evening, with a threat for hail and localized severe gusts.
Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...At 2315 UTC, a thunderstorm cluster over southeast CO
is approaching the far western TX/OK Panhandles, with other storms
intensifying farther southwest toward the Raton Mesa. Modest
destabilization (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) has occurred downstream,
with some towering cumulus noted to the west and northwest of
Tucumcari. With recent observations suggesting the presence of a
modest cold pool associated with the southeast CO storm cluster, and
some increase in a southeasterly low-level jet expected with time,
an increase in storm coverage is expected this evening into extreme
northeast NM and the western TX/OK Panhandles. 

Midlevel flow is not particularly strong, but a favorably veered
wind profile is supporting effective shear of 30-40 kt, with a
tendency toward somewhat greater shear values with southward extent.
The ongoing storm cluster may become better organized as it
continues to move southeastward, with a threat for a couple
supercells along its southwestward flank. If a small MCS can become
better organized, the threat for isolated to scattered severe gusts
will increase this evening. Otherwise, any sustained supercells will
pose a threat for hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a brief
tornado.

..Dean/Edwards.. 05/25/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37110299 36860224 36530206 35630190 35110213 34610251
            34510322 34830438 35300508 36250516 36740474 37110299 

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