ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171659 
SPC MCD 171659 
GAZ000-FLZ000-171900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0807
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023

Areas affected...eastern FL Panhandle...far southern GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 171659Z - 171900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms will probably be capable of 45-55 mph
gusts.  Pockets of wind damage will likely result from the stronger
wet microbursts.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar mosaic imagery show a
developing cluster of thunderstorms along a sea-breeze front over
the FL Panhandle.  To the east of this developing thunderstorm
cluster, mostly sunny skies will continue to promote strong heating
through the early afternoon and yield steepening low-level lapse
rates.  K2J9 (Quincy Municipal Airport, FL) observed a 35-kt gust
with a thunderstorm at 1635 UTC.  

The 12 UTC Tallahassee raob showed greater buoyancy compared to the
Jacksonville raob (1100 vs. 400 J/kg MLCAPE).  Given this observed
gradient in buoyancy with a similar observed PW value (1.5 inches),
expecting more vigorous thunderstorm development over the eastern FL
Panhandle through the early afternoon with weaker storms farther
east over North FL.  The stronger water-loaded downdrafts will
probably be capable of at least strong and perhaps locally damaging
gusts (45-55 mph).  Pockets of wind damage are the primary hazard
with this activity.  Weak westerly tropospheric flow (per KTLH VAD
data) will favor slow eastward storm motions and a general motion
eastward of the evolving thunderstorm cluster.

..Smith/Grams.. 05/17/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30848437 31018333 30808305 30448287 29938302 30058416
            30268452 30578456 30848437 

NNNN