ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 121820 
SPC MCD 121820 
TXZ000-OKZ000-122115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0773
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Areas affected...southern Oklahoma into northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 121820Z - 122115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form over the next several
hours, with damaging winds and sporadic hail possible. A wind threat
may expand south and east later day, and trends will be monitored
for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...Showers are beginning to form over southern OK, with
clouds beginning to increase as well farther southwest along the
dryline into northwest TX. GPS PWAT values are greatest near the Red
River from far southern OK into northern TX with values over 1.40",
while value over 1.00" exist along the immediate dryline from
west-central OK into northwest TX.  This, along with heating, is
resulting in uncapped MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg on average.

Continued heating as well as weak convergence near the dryline will
result in scattered storms developing through the afternoon. Weak
shear with veering winds with height will favor slow-moving clusters
of storms, eventually moving with a southerly component. As
substantial outflow is produced, damaging wind potential is expected
to increase.  Hail may occur with the initial activity and favoring
the steeper low-level lapse rate area prior to mergers occurring.

..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/12/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   34609691 34199674 33729674 33469708 32759851 32589994
            32690022 33050006 33189992 33589946 34169893 34499871
            34809827 34829762 34739714 34609691 

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