Mesoscale Discussion 0773
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0120 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

   Areas affected...southern Oklahoma into northwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121820Z - 122115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form over the next several
   hours, with damaging winds and sporadic hail possible. A wind threat
   may expand south and east later day, and trends will be monitored
   for a possible watch.

   DISCUSSION...Showers are beginning to form over southern OK, with
   clouds beginning to increase as well farther southwest along the
   dryline into northwest TX. GPS PWAT values are greatest near the Red
   River from far southern OK into northern TX with values over 1.40",
   while value over 1.00" exist along the immediate dryline from
   west-central OK into northwest TX.  This, along with heating, is
   resulting in uncapped MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg on average.

   Continued heating as well as weak convergence near the dryline will
   result in scattered storms developing through the afternoon. Weak
   shear with veering winds with height will favor slow-moving clusters
   of storms, eventually moving with a southerly component. As
   substantial outflow is produced, damaging wind potential is expected
   to increase.  Hail may occur with the initial activity and favoring
   the steeper low-level lapse rate area prior to mergers occurring.

   ..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/12/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   34609691 34199674 33729674 33469708 32759851 32589994
               32690022 33050006 33189992 33589946 34169893 34499871
               34809827 34829762 34739714 34609691