ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 060642 
SPC MCD 060642 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-060845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0686
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CDT Sat May 06 2023

Areas affected...eastern Nebraska into western Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 060642Z - 060845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm development will spread into and
across the Missouri River between Omaha and Sioux City through 3-5
AM.  The extent of the continuing risk for strong to severe gusts
remains a bit unclear, but rapid diminishment is possible.

DISCUSSION...A small, but organized convective system with a
well-defined mesoscale convective vortex and strong
west-northwesterly rear-inflow has been maintaining intensity,
probably aided by forcing along the leading edge of its associated
surface cold pool.  However, northeasterly near-surface inflow will
become increasingly stable with continued forward propagation into
and across the Missouri River area, and it remains unclear how much
longer cold pool forcing will be maintained.  

It does appear that an elevated easterly moist inflow (around 850
mb) characterized by sizable CAPE could support renewed vigorous
thunderstorm activity, rooted within lower/mid-tropospheric warm
advection.  This probably will tend to focus above the remnant cold
pool air, on the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer
air (roughly north of the Interstate 80 corridor).  As this occurs,
potential for severe surface gusts is expected to diminish, though
some risk for severe hail might not be out of the question.

..Kerr/Grams.. 05/06/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   42229769 42899563 42629484 41549566 41359660 41249728
            41729739 42229769 

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