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Mesoscale Discussion 684
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0684
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0745 PM CDT Fri May 05 2023

   Areas affected...portions of southern and western Nebraska...and
   adjacent northeastern Colorado/northern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188...

   Valid 060045Z - 060245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe weather potential with isolated supercell storms
   will continue over the next couple of hours across southern and
   western Nebraska and nearby areas.  Large hail, and a few damaging
   gusts locally, remain the most likely threats.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a few isolated, rotating storms
   moving northeastward across southwestern Nebraska/eastward across
   south-central Nebraska, north of a northern Kansas surface warm
   front.  The storms are occurring on the northern fringe of a Plains
   instability axis, and within a favorable kinematic environment owing
   in part to the low-level easterly/southeasterly winds on the cool
   side of the warm front.  With west-southwesterlies aloft, the
   overall wind field supports continuation of rotating storms, and
   thus ongoing risk for large hail and damaging winds locally over the
   next couple of hours.

   As low-level southerlies/south-southwesterlies increase this
   evening, an expansion in storm coverage -- with some upscale growth
   -- is expected, with a possible ramp-up in severe potential during
   the mid evening time frame.  Eventually however, diurnal
   cooling/stabilization effects should act to temper ongoing risk,
   which should gradually diminish into the overnight hours while
   spreading eastward across Nebraska.

   ..Goss.. 05/06/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42210278 42040232 41480154 41100038 40509797 39729772
               39659982 39990226 40440268 42210278 

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Page last modified: May 06, 2023
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