ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 031854 
SPC MCD 031854 
TXZ000-032130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0670
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Wed May 03 2023

Areas affected...Portions of western north TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 031854Z - 032130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind risk may exist with developing
thunderstorms this afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...The cu field has recently become agitated along an
outflow-reinforced front across western north TX. Latest visible and
day cloud phase satellite imagery suggest at least one thunderstorm
may develop and persist along this boundary. The low/mid-level flow
field remains modest across this region per recent area VWPs, but
enough veering/strengthening with height may still support 25-35 kt
of deep-layer shear. This should be sufficient for some updraft
organization, including marginal supercell potential. If a robust
thunderstorm can form and persist, it would tend to move slowly
east-southeastward along/near the surface boundary. Around 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates should
support some threat for isolated large hail. Occasional
severe/damaging downdraft winds may also occur as low-level lapse
rates continue to steepen. Current expectations are for the severe
threat to remain quite isolated, so watch issuance is not currently
expected.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/03/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON   32609969 32820000 33229992 33329953 33189863 32779850
            32519900 32609969 

NNNN