ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 271742 
SPC MCD 271742 
NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-271945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0637
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern Wyoming...Nebraska
Panhandle...far northeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 271742Z - 271945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe (40-55 kts) wind gusts
are expected across parts of the central High Plains vicinity. A
watch is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...Convection within parts of the central Rockies and
adjacent High Plains has continued to increase ahead of compact
shortwave trough digging southeastward out of Montana. Recent
surface observations within the last hour show strong to severe wind
gusts have occurred west of the Big Horns. Though moisture behind
the cold front is quite low, observed temperatures of -20 to -22 C
at 500 mb on 12Z regional soundings should still support around 250
J/kg (locally higher) MLCAPE. The expectation is for widely
scattered strong to severe (40-55 kts) wind gusts to occur where
convection can develop this afternoon as low-level lapse rates are
already quite steep. Given the limited moisture and general lack of
storm organization, a watch is not currently expected.

..Wendt/Hart.. 04/27/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   41110166 40610287 40570472 41110535 41430562 42030634
            43130784 43640841 44140855 44610837 44810781 44500701
            43790551 43200234 42260139 41110166 

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