ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 151350 
SPC MCD 151350 
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-151515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0522
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0850 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Areas affected...east-central and southeast MO vicinity into
southwest IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 151350Z - 151515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorm clusters may produce small
hail through midday. A watch is not expected for this initial
morning thunderstorm activity.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from
central MO into far northern AR. This activity is elevated above the
stable morning boundary-layer and a weak EML around 850 mb. Steeper
midlevel lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km have spread across the region
amid modest boundary-layer dewpoints (generally mid 50s to near 60
F). This will support weak instability. Vertical shear is rather
weak, with the KLSX VWP showing 27 kt 0-6 km shear currently. Modest
elevated instability and shear will be sufficient to maintain these
thunderstorm clusters as they track eastward this morning, but
convection should remain relatively disorganized, with perhaps small
hail briefly accompanying the stronger cells. A severe thunderstorm
watch is not expected with this initial morning convection, with the
main severe threat expected later this afternoon.

..Leitman/Grams.. 04/15/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   39529173 39589085 38998984 37558921 36658947 36088992
            36039077 36249153 36759210 37249229 38019230 38589227
            39159219 39409205 39529173 

NNNN