ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 050115 SPC MCD 050115 MOZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-050315- Mesoscale Discussion 0467 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0815 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023 Areas affected...Eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 050115Z - 050315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Damaging wind and hail risk increasing. Watch south and west of WW117 may be needed within the next hour. DISCUSSION...The surface dry line has retreated westward into northwestern Oklahoma within the last couple of hours with moisture increasing across central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. Mid 60s dew points have spread as northward into northeastern Kansas and as far west as the Oklahoma City Metro. 00z soundings still show inhibition firmly in place, which has kept warm sector initiation limited. Inhibition has weakened somewhat to the west near the dry line. However, development has been ongoing near the merging of the cold front and dry line in northern Kansas. Deep layer shear vectors are parallel to the approaching front, which has tended to keep storms on the boundary with linear storm modes. This will likely continue as further initiation spreads southward into southern Kansas and Oklahoma with the approaching front this evening. Storms will likely be slightly elevated atop the frontal surface, given inhibition below 850-700 mb. The profile becomes very unstable above the CIN layer, with MUCAPE around 3000 J/kg observed from OUN and TOP. Given this environment, threats will include damaging winds and severe hail. A downstream watch will be needed within the next hour. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 04/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 38149679 38969632 40459513 40649441 40549377 40119366 39459374 39149386 38879394 37689451 36699468 36439484 35959558 35849620 35789673 35809713 35929772 36019797 36149808 36269815 36859776 38149679 NNNN