ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 042335 
SPC MCD 042335 
MIZ000-050030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0464
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023

Areas affected...portions of southern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 042335Z - 050030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail will remain a threat with a supercell across
lower Michigan for a couple more hours. A WW issuance is not
expected given the localized nature of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...An elevated supercell with a history of severe hail has
recently shown intensification over the past hour, with MRMS mosaic
radar data showing 30 dBZ echoes exceeding 45 kft. Continued
low-level warm-air advection amid 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates
(shown in the 23Z mesoanalysis), are contributing to a few hundred
J/kg of elevated MUCAPE across southern Lower Michigan. Despite the
elevated nature of the storms, intense speed/directional shear are
contributing to very large hodographs, with enough SRH being
ingested into the storm to continue supporting efficient mid-level
rotation and associated production of large hail. Severe potential
should continue for at least a couple more hours with this storm,
and very large hail (2+ inches in diameter) cannot be ruled out. 

Given that the severe threat is expected to be associated with this
one storm, and since longevity of this storm is in question, a WW
issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri.. 04/04/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42788542 42938462 42998411 42818370 42618378 42538422
            42508479 42558541 42788542 

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