Mesoscale Discussion 0321
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

   Areas affected...northeast Texas...central and southern Arkansas and
   parts of northern Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 241750Z - 242015Z

   CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
   along a cold front, with a damaging wind, hail and tornado risk
   developing through the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have increased recently along a cold front from
   southeast OK into northeast TX, and this trend is likely to continue
   as the air mass destabilizes downstream toward the Arklatex. 

   Surface analysis shows modifying outflow extending eastward across
   central AR, with a leading line of storms heading toward the Memphis
   area. Southerly winds are gusting to over 30 kt south of the dying
   outflow boundary in AR, and surface observations near the Red River
   are recovering. As such, the severe risk area will likely include
   parts of AR which are currently cooler/stable, due to expected
   destabilization later today.

   Low pressure will move east/northeast across the modifying outflow
   zone, reaching northeast AR by 00Z. This zone will be a favored area
   for severe storms including tornadoes and damaging winds, with mixed
   storm modes possible. Low-level shear is currently strongest in this
   area, averaging around 250 m2/s2 0-1 SRH. However, shear across the
   entire region will become more favorable for supercells and
   tornadoes later today.

   Through early afternoon, the severe risk is expected to evolve from
   the activity over northeast TX as it moves into AR and interacts
   with the enhanced low-level shear zone.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 03/24/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32479252 31909396 31859512 32289553 32699563 33219555
               33639534 33899512 34209479 34689390 34989310 35179167
               35069121 34639108 33789143 32969202 32479252