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Mesoscale Discussion 317
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0317
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0932 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

   Areas affected...Northwest TX into southern OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71...

   Valid 240232Z - 240430Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of large hail continues with ongoing supercells
   from northwest TX into south-central OK (across Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 71). Trends are being monitored for an additional watch
   issuance for parts of the area tonight.

   DISCUSSION...Splitting supercells capable of large hail are ongoing
   from northwest TX into portions of south-central OK -- north of a
   quasi-stationary surface boundary draped through the area. While
   most of these storms are likely elevated atop the frontal surface,
   60+ kt of cloud-layer shear (per regional VWP data) characterized by
   long/mostly straight hodographs is still supporting loosely
   organized splitting supercell structures. During the next few hours,
   this activity will generally track east-northeastward across
   southern OK with a continued risk of large hail. It is unclear if
   this continued activity will warrant an additional watch issuance
   upon the 04Z expiration of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71, though
   convective trends will be monitored.

   ..Weinman/Thompson.. 03/24/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   34219920 34509878 34889757 35039682 35089615 34909561
               34499560 34189593 34049658 33779790 33209918 33209974
               33519989 33839964 34219920 

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Page last modified: March 24, 2023
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