ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 231933 SPC MCD 231933 OKZ000-TXZ000-232100- Mesoscale Discussion 0310 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Areas affected...western north TX...southwest into central OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 231933Z - 232100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A convective watch (probably a severe thunderstorm) is expected as storms develop between 300-400pm across southwest into central OK. Large to very large hail will be the primary severe hazard with supercells, but a tornado and severe gusts are also possible. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows towering cumulus over Tillman County, OK and Wilbarger County, TX. Convective initiation appears imminent and other storm development is expected over the next 1-2 hours northeastward along a slowly sagging cold front draped near I-44. Surface observations show temperatures nearing 80 deg F over western north TX to the immediate south of the boundary. Considerable cloud cover/showers have largely limited heating across south-central OK during the past 1-2 hours, with temperatures holding in the low-mid 70s. Moderate buoyancy has developed over western north TX and is reduced with northeast extent into central OK due to cloud cover/shower activity. The 18z Norman, OK raob showed a layer of very steep lapse rates between 700-450 mb (8.5 deg C/km). Low-level flow is not forecast to appreciably intensify until later this evening and this will limit hodograph size and the potential for a tornado. However, strong southwesterly mid-level winds (60-65 kt at 500mb) will promote storm organization. A few strong supercells may eventually develop and emerge from a corridor extending from western north TX northeastward into southwest OK through the early evening. Other strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop over parts of central OK later this afternoon into the evening. ..Smith/Guyer.. 03/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 32979897 33130036 34529926 35629736 35659628 34749624 32979897 NNNN