ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 030353 
SPC MCD 030353 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-030530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0239
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0953 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

Areas affected...eastern Texas...central and southern Arkansas...and
northern Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 57...

Valid 030353Z - 030530Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 57 continues.

SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes,
remain possible as a line of storms continues advancing eastward
across eastern Texas.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues advancing across eastern
Texas, and far southwestern Arkansas, and will reach far
northwestern Louisiana over the next hour or so.  Farther south into
southeastern Texas, storms have gradually been undercut by the cold
front, and subsequently weakened as they become increasingly
elevated atop the post-frontal airmass.

Farther north though, storms remain vigorous locally, with a few
severe-caliber gusts having been observed over the past hour.  This
risk for severe/potentially damaging winds will continue, along with
risk for an embedded tornado or two.

A very modest increase in pre-frontal/warm-sector showers has
occurred east of the Sabine Valley, and this convection bears
watching, as the upper system crossing western Texas advances and
gradually acquires negative tilt, along with a corresponding
increase in both large-scale ascent, and the deep-layer wind field,
occurs downstream.

..Goss.. 03/03/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   31859534 33539450 34509419 34979165 33959110 32899139
            31609297 31419432 31859534 

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