ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 262103 
SPC MCD 262103 
KSZ000-262300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0190
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Areas affected...Southwest/Central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 262103Z - 262300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind
gusts is expected to develop over the next few hours across
southwest KS. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed for
portion of the region.

DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper
70s across southwest KS, while dewpoints currently remain in the
upper 30s. Low-level moisture advection is expected to persist for
at least the next few hours ahead of the strong shortwave trough
moving out the southern High Plains. Even so, dewpoints will likely
only reach the upper 40s before the surface low associated with the
shortwave moves through. 

Despite modest thermodynamics, very strong large-scale forcing for
ascent augmented by mesoscale ascent near the deepening surface low
is still expected to result enough lift to overcome any convective
inhibition. A linear storm mode is anticipated, with robust wind
fields contributing to the potential for fast-storm motion and
strong wind gusts. Given this potential for strong wind gusts, a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed for portion of the
region.

..Mosier/Grams.. 02/26/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   37450197 37890174 38490057 38899957 38979866 38389844
            37949876 37460041 37380115 37450197 

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