ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 161737 SPC MCD 161737 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-161900- Mesoscale Discussion 0164 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 Areas affected...southern Mississippi into west-central Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 38... Valid 161737Z - 161900Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 38 continues. SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to organize with tornado potential gradually increasing through the early afternoon. A corridor of higher tornado potential may evolve from southeastern MS into west-central AL later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Over the last couple of hours, radar imagery has shown gradual organization of a few supercells over portions of southern MS. Surface obs and PERILS experimental soundings have shown steady airmass modification and boundary-layer destabilization from southerly low-level advection and cloud breaks within the overlying stratus deck. As temperatures warm into the mid 70s F, increasing theta-E will likely allow for continued intensification of ongoing storms and the development of additional convection in the vicinity. Area VADs show robust low-level shear profiles that have improved over time, with 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, supportive of low-level mesocyclones. As supercells mature, the tornado threat should gradually increase through the early afternoon over southern MS. A corridor of enhanced tornado potential may evolve into portions of west-central AL later this afternoon as the current supercells shift eastward. While timing of any downstream watches remains a bit uncertain owing to recent convective imitation near the AL/MS border, a few hours will likely be needed for updrafts to organize to pose a substantial tornado threat. HRRR trends suggest the supercells moving out of southern MS remain the primary threat in the coming hours. However, convective trends will be monitored for any intensification or new convective development farther east into AL. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 02/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30969104 31169135 31459137 31879129 32679056 33268939 33348881 33328822 33288767 33208755 32978750 32668764 31898813 31538844 31288885 31128923 31068958 30999011 30969104 NNNN