ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 312011 
SPC MCD 312011 
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-010015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0120
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Arkansas...the Missouri
Bootheel...western Tennessee...and northern Mississippi

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 312011Z - 010015Z

SUMMARY...Light to moderate sleet and freezing rain is expected into
the early evening across the middle Mississippi Valley.

DISCUSSION...An area of light to moderate precipitation associated
with frontogenesis/isentropic ascent continues to spread east across
Arkansas this afternoon. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 20s
where the heaviest precipitation is currently falling. Current
observations show a mixture of sleet and freezing rain across the
region. RAP forecast soundings show thermodynamic profiles mostly
favorable for freezing rain south of Memphis and sleet north of
Memphis. Areas which remain freezing rain through the
afternoon/evening could receive significant ice accretion while
areas with sleet could receive significant sleet accumulation.
Locally higher amounts are also possible as the HRRR has trended
farther north with QPF between 12Z and 18Z, which is supported by
upstream radar observations. This northward shift could lead to a
mesoscale region of QPF approaching 0.5 inches in the Memphis metro
area.  Icy precipitation is beginning now in the Memphis metro area
and will continue through the evening commute.

..Bentley.. 01/31/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   34569363 36269325 36519156 36419004 36388941 36018833
            35038876 34329006 34209251 34239332 34569363 

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