ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 220725 
SPC MCD 220725 
FLZ000-ALZ000-220930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0083
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023

Areas affected...AL Gulf Coast into the FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 220725Z - 220930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The severe-thunderstorm threat will increase overnight,
with locally damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado possible. Watch
issuance is currently considered unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of convection is ongoing at 0715Z across
southern AL and adjacent coastal waters. The inland convection is
elevated to the north of a warm front, which appears to be moving
inland near the AL and western FL Panhandle Gulf Coasts, as
evidenced by veering surface winds and dewpoints rising quickly into
the mid/upper 60s F. Weak midlevel lapse rates are limiting buoyancy
across the warm sector, though MLCAPE will likely rise into the
500-1000 J/kg range near the coast as the warm front moves onshore.
Area VWPs depict strong low-level and deep-layer flow/shear, and
wind profiles will support the potential for organized convection
near and south of the warm front. 

The greatest short-term threat is expected with a cluster of storms
currently south of Dauphin Island, AL, which will move
east-northeastward and potentially approach the coast as
surface-based convection in the vicinity of the warm frontal zone.
Strong low-level flow will support a threat of isolated damaging
gusts, especially if ongoing convection evolves into an organized
bowing segment. Some tornado threat may also develop with any storms
that interact with the warm frontal zone, though this threat may be
mitigated to some extent by the messy convective mode and a tendency
for low-level flow to quickly veer south of the front. Watch
issuance is currently considered unlikely, given the coverage
uncertainties and spatially confined area near the coast where
organized surface-based convection appears possible.

..Dean/Edwards.. 01/22/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   29798860 30958811 30818694 30698606 30238507 29858483
            29528483 29378527 29688615 29868696 29738787 29798860 

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