ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 030109 
SPC MCD 030109 
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-030245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0013
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0709 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023

Areas affected...Extreme northeast AR...Southeast MO...Far southern
IL...Far western KY...Northwest TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 030109Z - 030245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in the severe threat is possible with time
this evening, with a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps a
brief tornado or two. The need for watch issuance is uncertain at
this time.

DISCUSSION...Widespread convection is ongoing this evening from
northeast AR/northwest TN into western KY. While widespread rainfall
is limiting destabilization (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less),
favorable wind profiles (as noted on the KLZK and KNQA VWPs) are
supporting the potential for organized convection, and some
low/midlevel rotation has been noted with the stronger embedded
convective elements from extreme northeast AR into the MO Bootheel. 

With a southerly low-level jet expected to intensify through the
evening, some threat for locally damaging gusts and/or a brief
tornado or two may evolve with any stronger bowing segments or
embedded supercells. However, limited instability and a tendency for
destructive storm interference may tend to limit the magnitude of
the severe threat, making the need for short-term watch issuance
uncertain. Additional rounds of potentially organized convection may
impact the same area late tonight, as upstream storms eventually
move into the region in advance of a cold front.

..Dean/Thompson.. 01/03/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36038929 36018995 36059062 36859011 37328946 37358839
            37318790 37068788 36488823 36458848 36258879 36038929 

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