ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 022245 
SPC MCD 022245 
TXZ000-OKZ000-030015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0008
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023

Areas affected...Portions of East Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 022245Z - 030015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms in parts of East Texas may develop and intensify.
The need for a watch remains uncertain. Convective trends will be
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Agitated cumulus are increasing east of the DFW metro
with a small cluster of thunderstorms also developing north of
Houston. Should any of this activity intensify, storms would
continue to move into an environment favorable for all severe
hazards. The 18Z observed FWD sounding showed very steep mid-level
lapse rates and current VAD profiles from western Arkansas and
Louisiana show sufficient low-level shear for tornadoes. There is
some uncertainty in whether storms will intensify before moving into
existing tornado watches in Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex. A watch is
possible depending on convective trends in the next couple of hours.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 01/02/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   31369665 32169649 33199632 33979600 34119568 34029526
            32079497 30939511 30279566 30079616 30279653 30669673
            31369665 

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