ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 241302 
SPC MCD 241302 
NYZ000-241900-

Mesoscale Discussion 2072
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0702 AM CST Sat Dec 24 2022

Areas affected...Western New York State

Concerning...Blizzard 

Valid 241302Z - 241900Z

SUMMARY...Snowfall rates around 2" per hour and blizzard conditions
are expected to persist across southern Niagara and northern Erie
counties through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A lake-effect snow band has persisted throughout the
night and into this morning across southern Niagara and northern
Erie counties. The most intense portion of the band is currently
along the Niagara/Erie county border, where snowfall rates up to 2"
per hour are possible. Very strong winds are occurring in this
region as well, leading to persistent blizzard conditions. Surface
observations from BUF reveal blizzard conditions have been ongoing
since around 14Z yesterday. 

Expectation is for the lake-effect band and strong winds to persist
throughout the morning and afternoon. Some steepening of the
low-level lapse rates (i.e. surface to around 850-mb) is anticipated
over the next few hours. This could lead to slightly higher snowfall
rates. Additionally, surface wind may trend a bit more westerly
north of Lake Erie, contributing to a southward shift of the
snowband. This southward shift will likely begin early this
afternoon before then consolidating this evening.

..Mosier.. 12/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...

LAT...LON   42777891 42947890 43087903 43197899 43237879 43207864
            43047850 42867852 42807867 42777891 

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