ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 221715 
SPC MCD 221715 
NCZ000-221945-

Mesoscale Discussion 2063
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

Areas affected...coastal North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 221715Z - 221945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A conditional threat for a supercell could develop over
the coastal counties, depending on moisture recovery. At this time,
severe weather appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows rain-cooled air over land, with
a narrow plume of 62-63 F dewpoints just ahead of a line of
convection extending south from the coast. Modified forecast
soundings indicate dewpoints at or above 64 F may result in
favorable boundary-layer instability to support a supercell and/or
brief tornado threat, as 0-1 SRH exceeds 200 m2/s2.

Strong drying and downward motion exist behind the line of
convection, which continues to move rapidly eastward. As such, any
severe threat will be limited to this line. The strongest cells
currently remain offshore, and with little lightning. A watch is
thus unlikely given the conditionality of the threat, but
observational trends will continue to be monitored.

..Jewell/Grams.. 12/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

LAT...LON   34417754 34577758 34727774 34997741 35137686 35277579
            35127575 34877621 34637642 34567654 34647668 34657690
            34557719 34437740 34417754 

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