Mesoscale Discussion 2029
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0452 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

   Areas affected...portions of southern LA/MS into far southwest AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 141052Z - 141215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A risk for tornadoes and damaging gusts will
   continue/spread east across parts of southern LA/MS and far
   southwest AL this morning, and a new watch will be needed.

   DISCUSSION...A line of convection continues to slowly percolate
   eastward ahead of a slow-moving cold front early this morning. A
   warm front extends northwest to southeast from central MS toward the
   Mobile Bay vicinity. The warm front is expected to very gradually
   lift northward across southwest AL through the morning hours. The
   wedge of warm sector air between the eastward-advancing line of
   convection and the warm front is characterized by upper 60s to low
   70s surface dewpoints, contributing to modest instability. Regional
   VWP data continues to indicate strong low-level shear and favorably
   curved hodographs. Periodic rotation in line-embedded cells
   continues early this morning across southwest MS into southwest LA.
   Additionally, a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms
   developing within low-level confluence ahead of the main line of
   convection across southeast MS has shown increasing intensity and at
   least modest rotation over the past hour or two.  

   Given the overlap of favorable low-level instability and strong
   vertical shear, a risk for tornadoes and damaging gusts is expected
   to continue eastward this morning. A new tornado watch will be
   needed across parts of southern LA/MS into far southwest AL.

   ..Leitman/Edwards.. 12/14/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30209265 31289146 32468980 32638907 32568850 32308816
               31958804 31438797 30938811 30728881 30438980 30169045
               30049087 29889139 29589248 29599290 29889300 30209265