ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 130744 
SPC MCD 130744 
OKZ000-130845-

Mesoscale Discussion 2008
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

Areas affected...north-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 579...

Valid 130744Z - 130845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 579
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm and tornado potential will decrease
with eastward extent across north-central Oklahoma the next few
hours. Locally strong gusts are possible, but a watch downstream
from WW 579 is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A line of convection over western OK will continue to
shift east through the overnight hours. The downstream airmass is
characterized by temperatures generally in the 52-56 F range and
dewpoints in the low 50s. Modest midlevel lapse rates are
contributing to weak MLCAPE (generally less than 500 J/kg). While
moderate vertical shear and strong ascent are aiding in an organized
line of convection, poor thermodynamics will largely limit a more
widespread severe threat. Cool surface temperatures will continue to
limit surface-based instability, with modified RAP soundings
indicating surface temperatures around 60-61 degrees are necessary
for any appreciable surface-based CAPE. Isolated strong gusts,
perhaps a couple a strong as 55-60 mph, will be possible with more
intense convection moving into Blaine, Major and Alfalfa Counties
where the watch will be locally extended by WFO OUN. However, the
overall severe threat is expected to wane with eastward extent and
remain limited, precluding watch issuance downstream from WW 579.

..Leitman/Edwards.. 12/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   36099638 35779654 35639671 35629711 35599799 35779835
            36169852 36809845 36989810 36989789 36999728 36979668
            36699651 36199639 36099638 

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