Mesoscale Discussion 1948
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0452 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022

   Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Far Western Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 112252Z - 120115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat is expected across parts of
   southeast Texas into far western Louisiana over the next few hours.
   The threat should be too brief for weather watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level
   trough in west Texas, with southwesterly mid-level flow located from
   east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered
   thunderstorms are ongoing within this diffluent flow, along and to
   the west of an axis of instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the
   500 to 1000 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Lake
   Charles, Louisiana has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with weak
   directional shear in the lowest 2 km. This environment could support
   an isolated wind-damage threat for a few more hours. However, the
   threat should be too brief for weather watch issuance.

   ..Broyles/Grams.. 11/11/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29269602 29109587 28979553 29089507 29479434 30249341
               30829294 31209285 31529308 31669359 31639410 31449462
               30889524 30129580 29629603 29269602