Mesoscale Discussion 1917
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 AM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

   Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma across north-central and
   northeastern Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 041628Z - 041730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Potential for severe/supercell storms is expected to
   gradually increase into the afternoon.  All-hazards severe risk is
   expected, including likelihood for for significant tornadoes,
   widespread damaging winds, and large hail.  A tornado watch will
   likely be required by early afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows convection increasing in
   coverage/intensity along an advancing cold front now stretching from
   southeastern Kansas across central and southwestern Oklahoma and
   into western North Texas.  Ahead of the front/frontal convection, a
   moistening boundary layer is indicated, with mid 60s dewpoints into
   southeastern Oklahoma and low 70s dewpoints now spreading toward the
   Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.

   The low-level moistening is occurring beneath a rather substantial
   capping inversion, revealed by the recent 15Z FWD RAOB, and which
   extends across the warm sector as suggested by the character of the
   low cloudiness as revealed by recent visible satellite imagery. 
   This cloudiness will continue to retard heating, and thus low-level
   destabilization, over the next several of hours, but cooling aloft
   -- associated with the advancing upper system -- will allow gradual
   airmass destabilization, particularly above 700mb.

   Weak warm-advection-induced showery convection indicated across the
   warm sector continues to gradually increase, with some small/higher
   reflectivity cores beginning to become apparent.  Expect a gradual
   ramp-up in this convection to continue -- with eventual growth into
   cellular/lightning-producing cells as cooling aloft continues within
   the capping layer and above.  

   Once deep convection becomes established, rapid intensification to
   severe levels is expected, as very favorable shear -- provided by
   low-level southerly flow veering to south-southwesterly and
   increasing to 50 kt at around 1km along with additional veering
   above -- resides across the warm sector.  Risk for
   strong/significant tornadoes will then ensue, as storms acquire
   strong rotation.  Large hail and locally damaging winds are also
   expected.

   Risk for damaging winds will likely increase later this afternoon
   and beyond, as convection strengthens linearly along the front with
   time, likely merging gradually with pre-frontal cellular convection
   to evolve into a well-developed squall line by early evening.  This
   anticipated evolution will likely require tornado watch issuance
   within the next hour or two, extending eastward across southeastern
   Oklahoma and North Texas toward the Arklatex region.

   ..Goss/Hart.. 11/04/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34629724 35179639 35689521 35649412 34169418 32989443
               31249528 30779687 31299852 32799858 34629724