Mesoscale Discussion 1915
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1027 PM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

   Areas affected...central into southwestern Kansas...adjacent
   northwestern Oklahoma...northeastern Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 040327Z - 040600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm activity is possible through 1-3
   AM CDT, some of which may pose a risk for severe hail and locally
   strong gusts.  It is not certain that a severe weather watch will be
   needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this
   possibility.

   DISCUSSION...Downstream of the significant Southwestern mid-level
   trough now turning eastward toward the southern Rockies, lower/mid
   tropospheric warm advection has become focused in a corridor across
   western Kansas into south central Nebraska (roughly from near Dodge
   City into the Kearney/Hastings vicinity).  This is generally
   north/northeast of 40-45 kt southerly 850 mb jet core, which extends
   south-southwestward toward the eastern Texas Panhandle, and is
   allowing for increasing moisture return to contribute to
   destabilization in the presence of steepening lapse rates.  Rapid
   Refresh suggests that this may now include most unstable CAPE up to
   around 1000 J/kg.

   However, this regime is increasingly becoming undercut by a sharp
   southward advancing cold front, now south of Concordia, Russell,
   Garden City, into western portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle.  And
   steady southward advancement of this cold air appears likely to
   continue into the overnight hours (a bit more rapidly across the
   higher plains than areas to the east). 

   Frontal forcing appeared to contribute to the initiation of recent 
   isolated thunderstorm development to the north of Dodge City, but in
   the presence of strong southwesterly deep-layer ambient mean flow,
   this cell quickly advected to the cool side of the front, where it
   remains weak.  Similar additional thunderstorm development appears
   possible during the next few hours, particularly as mid/upper flow
   begins to become increasingly difluent and divergent across the
   Texas Panhandle into western Kansas through 06-08Z.  While it is
   possible that this may increasingly include isolated initial storm
   development southward along the low-level jet axis into the warm
   sector, the tendency for stronger storm development to become
   undercut by the southward advancing front probably will persist. 
   This may limit the general severe weather potential, but stronger
   storms may briefly become capable of producing severe hail and
   perhaps gusty winds.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 11/04/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37360073 38839927 38689799 37129879 35879989 35300107
               37360073