ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 300052 
SPC MCD 300052 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-300145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1912
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022

Areas affected...southwestern Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 559...

Valid 300052Z - 300145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 559 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado threat continues across southwestern Alabama
within Watch 559. The greatest threat will be along and immediately
north of the coast.

DISCUSSION...Radar trends continue to show discrete cells with
intermittent rotation continuing near Mobile and Mobile Bay.
Confirmed tornadoes have been reported near Mobile and just north of
Gulf Shores in the last hour. The VAD profile at MOB continues to
show a favorable environment for supercells with backed
southeasterly winds and 0-2 km storm relative helicity around 250
m2/s2. Instability is confined to the adjacent coastal waters and
just inland across southwestern Mississippi and southeastern
Alabama. With the loss of diurnal heating, this will become more and
more confined to the coast and adjacent coastal waters. As such, the
region of greatest tornado risk will remain along and just north of
the coast over the next couple of hours. A band of prefrontal
convection continues to approach from the west and should arrive
within the next couple of hours. The tornado threat should diminish
as this feature arrives, with storm mode becoming more clustered and
linear from better forcing for ascent along the front. However, a
brief spin up could not be ruled out within this line.

..Thornton/Hart.. 10/30/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   30938859 31078842 31108805 31098781 30988763 30678753
            30358744 30248752 30038765 30028812 30038825 30108838
            30938859 

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