ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 280413 
SPC MCD 280413 
TXZ000-280545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1906
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022

Areas affected...Parts of west Texas...including the Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 280413Z - 280545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop
south across west Texas over the next several hours. Hail and gusty
winds are possible with the strongest storms.

DISCUSSION...Notable upper low is settling south across central NM
late this evening. Large-scale forcing for ascent is spreading
southeast ahead of this feature across the southern High Plains and
appears partly responsible for a corridor of convection from near
MAF into southwest OK. Over the last hour or so, convective
intensity has increased with showers in the MAF vicinity, both ahead
of the boundary and along the wind shift from Ector into Midland
County. Considerable amount of lightning is now noted with these
intensifying updrafts as much cooler mid-level temperatures
overspread surface dew points in the mid 50s. MUCAPE values are
roughly 1000-1500 J/kg extreme southern portions of ww557, south
across the Edwards Plateau. Additionally, LLJ is focused across this
region and will remain modestly strong from the south ahead of this
activity through sunrise. Latest thinking is scattered convection,
with some supercell potential, will develop south and spread east
toward the Hill County later tonight. Hail/wind are the primary
hazards.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 10/28/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   31520233 32590102 32170020 30050049 30340180 31520233 

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