ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 172232 
SPC MCD 172232 
TXZ000-180030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1885
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022

Areas affected...Deep south Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 172232Z - 180030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm moving along the Rio Grande will
pose a large hail and wind risk over the next 2-3 hours across deep
south Texas. Given the limited spatial extent of the threat, a watch
is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A supercell moving along the Rio Grande river has shown
an uptick in intensity over the past 30 minutes by most metrics,
including an rapid increase in lightning counts, strong cloud top
cooling, and the development of an organized mesocyclone. Despite
behind displaced well behind a surface cold front, the downstream
environment features warm surface temperatures in the low 80s with
rich moisture content (dewpoints in the 70s) that are fostering
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE per latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates.
Westerly 40-50 knot effective shear values are also favorable for
storm maintenance. Based on radar storm motion estimates, this cell
will continue to propagate to the east/southeast towards the
Brownsville, TX region over the next 2-3 hours. The probability of
this storm weakening during this period appears low given the
aforementioned environment, so a large hail and severe wind risk
appears likely for deep south TX for the next few hours.

..Moore/Bunting.. 10/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

LAT...LON   26489917 26659900 26639860 26479803 26329727 26099716
            25839718 25769749 25819780 25989846 26169886 26349922
            26489917 

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