ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 291850 
SPC MCD 291850 
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-292115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1846
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Areas affected...Utah...Western Wyoming...Southeast Idaho

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 291850Z - 292115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop over
the next couple of hours from parts of western Utah, far southeast
Idaho and far western Wyoming. The threat should remain isolated and
weather watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a trough over western
and northern Utah extending northward into southeast Idaho. Surface
dewpoints near the trough are generally in the 40s and 50 F. In
response to surface heating, an axis of relatively weak instability
has developed. The strongest instability appears to be located to
the north of Salt Lake City where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 500 to
750 J/kg range. As surface temperatures continue to warm this
afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
near the instability axis. In addition to the instability, the RAP
has 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range across much of western
and northern Utah. This, along with 0-3 km lapse rates in the 8.5 to
9.5 C/km range later this afternoon should support a marginal
wind-damage threat. The potential for strong wind gusts should
remain isolated.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 09/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...LKN...

LAT...LON   38991344 38751324 38671284 38731249 38871222 39161209
            39581219 40041223 40541198 41541111 42351046 43021026
            43431071 43341166 42921257 42101340 40841416 40301422
            39621382 38991344 

NNNN