ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 290143 
SPC MCD 290143 
FLZ000-290245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1844
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0843 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Areas affected...Florida Space Coast

Concerning...Tornado Watch 547...

Valid 290143Z - 290245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 547 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat will continue near the Space
Coast through the evening. Downstream watch issuance is unlikely due
to less favorable environment north of the surface front.

DISCUSSION...Ian continues to track northeastward across central
Florida this evening with ongoing convection in the feeder bands off
the east coast of Florida. Convection has been limited near shore
over the last several hours. A favorable environment is still in
place across a narrow corridor near the Space Coast where a boundary
of favorable surface based CAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg
overlaps with dew points in the mid 70s south of a surface front to
the north. Observations from the VAD wind profiler at MLB have shown
a steady increase in east to southeast winds over the last three
hours, which has improved low level shear profiles. A narrow band of
SRH of 200 m2/s2 will be in place across the Melbourne area through
the evening. Any isolated tornado threat will be conditional,
pending the development of any further bands of convection south of
the surface front. If cells can develop and move inland, a tornado
or two will be possible.

North of the front across northeast Florida, temperatures are cooler
with temperatures dropping into the upper 60s with lower dewpoints
making for a less favorable environment for sustained convective
development and tornadoes. Downstream watch issuance looks unlikely
at this time.

..Thornton.. 09/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX...

LAT...LON   28718109 29178140 29638152 29938087 29748021 29268014
            28817997 28217982 27687979 27668007 28158097 28718109 

NNNN