ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 251614 
SPC MCD 251614 
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-251815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1823
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Areas affected...Southern WV...Southwest VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 251614Z - 251815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms are expected to continue eastward
into more of southern WV and western VA over the next few hours. A
few strong gusts and isolated hail may accompany these storms.
Convective trends will be monitored closely for the possible watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown in increase in storm
intensity and coverage across southern WV and the KY/VA border
vicinity. This increase appears to be associated with strengthening
forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave trough moving through
the upper OH Valley. Brief clearing ahead of the ascent has allowed
temperatures to increase into the mid to upper 60s. Even so,
dewpoints remain in the mid 50s and the overall thermodynamic
profile is characterized by modest buoyancy and relatively low EL
heights. This should result in predominantly low-topped storms.

Recent mesoanalysis places a corridor of 60 kt 500-mb winds from
eastern KY through western VA. Fast (i.e. 40+ kt) storm motion is
expected as a result, as well as the potential for a few stronger
wind gusts as the storms move through. As such, damaging gusts will
be the main severe threat, although isolated hail is also possible
within robust updrafts given the cold mid-level temperatures.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 09/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   37518209 38068128 38278036 37937919 37057941 36588046
            36638297 37518209 

NNNN