ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152233 
SPC MCD 152233 
NEZ000-KSZ000-160030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1785
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

Areas affected...Far northwest KS into southwest/central NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 152233Z - 160030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts are
possible early this evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Storms are increasing in coverage and intensity from
northwest KS into southwest/central NE, within a moderately unstable
(MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and uncapped environment. Relatively
steep midlevel lapse rates will support initially vigorous updrafts,
though weak deep-layer shear is expected to limit storm
organization. Steep low-level lapse rates will support a primary
risk of isolated severe gusts, though some small hail will also be
possible as updrafts pulse upward in intensity. Some outflow
amalgamation is possible with time, which could continue to support
a threat of isolated severe gusts into this evening, but weak
deep-layer shear and increasing MLCINH should result in a weakening
trend near/after sunset. Due to the rather isolated and marginal
nature of the threat, watch issuance is not anticipated.

..Dean/Guyer.. 09/15/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   41530070 42309965 42629909 42629817 42619751 42459728
            41609736 40599785 39999832 39629880 39429913 39449990
            39530046 39960107 40500143 41530070 

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