ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152056 
SPC MCD 152056 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-152230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1784
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

Areas affected...The texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into western
Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 152056Z - 152230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...High-based storms may pose a risk for isolated strong to
severe wind gusts through this evening. Limited organization should
negate the need for a weather watch.

DISCUSSION...As of 2045 UTC, regional satellite and radar imagery
showed developing showers and thunderstorms across much of the
southern and central High Plains. East of a surface lee trough,
development of these storms is being driven primarily by weak
low-level convergence and strong diurnal heating of a modestly moist
airmass. SPC mesoanalysis and area RAP soundings show around 1000
J/kg of MLCAPE and generally less than 25 kt of deep-layer shear.
Low-level lapse rates remain steep and a few stronger downdrafts
capable of isolated strong to severe wind gusts may develop this
afternoon/evening. While isolated severe winds are possible, the
multi-cell mode and limited deep-layer shear suggests storm
organization potential will be contingent upon consolidating outflow
and localized clustering. Thus, uncertainty on severe weather is
high and a weather watch is unlikely this afternoon and evening.

..Lyons/Hart.. 09/15/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   33270281 36930249 38630082 39360015 39379888 38559843
            37469873 36109943 33240159 33270281 

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