Mesoscale Discussion 1773
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0952 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022

   Areas affected...Western/central FL Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 101452Z - 101715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms capable of localized damaging wind gusts and
   perhaps a brief tornado will be possible late this morning into the
   early afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Extensive convection has been ongoing this morning
   across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, east of a nearly stationary
   midlevel low over the lower MS Valley. While much of this activity
   has been moving northward and only approaching the FL Gulf Coast at
   an oblique angle, a recent outflow surge with a more easterly
   component has been noted just offshore of Tampa Bay, which will
   begin affecting portions of the western FL Peninsula a little later
   this morning. 

   While midlevel lapse rates are weak, diurnal heating amid rich
   tropical moisture is supporting MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg, per recent
   objective mesoanalyses. Moderate mid/upper-level flow will continue
   to support modest storm organization as convection spreads inland
   and/or redevelops across the peninsula. Locally damaging wind gusts
   will likely be the primary hazard, especially with any
   outflow-driven clusters that can evolve within the broader plume of
   convection. Low-level flow/shear is rather weak, but a brief tornado
   will also be possible, particularly with any semi-discrete cells
   that end up merging into the larger band of storms. At this time,
   watch issuance is unlikely, but will be reconsidered if
   observational trends support a more organized/widespread threat than
   currently anticipated.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 09/10/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   28318140 27118145 26408148 26108168 26368220 27468269
               28238298 28908294 29198287 29248221 29198157 28318140