Mesoscale Discussion 1761
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0314 PM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022

   Areas affected...Western/northern OK into extreme south-central KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032014Z - 032245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated severe gusts may develop by
   late afternoon or early evening. Watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently developed across Custer
   County, Oklahoma, with increasing cumulus noted elsewhere across
   northern OK into far south-central KS. Additional thunderstorm
   development is possible later this afternoon into the early evening
   in the vicinity of a cold front, possibly aided by a subtle midlevel
   vorticity maximum moving southward along the eastern periphery of
   the western upper ridge.

   Area VWPs show northerly midlevel flow of 20-30 kt across the
   region, which may aid in the development of one or more loosely
   organized and southward-moving clusters. Moderate buoyancy and steep
   low-level lapse rates will support a threat of isolated
   strong/severe gusts and small hail, though relatively weak low-level
   flow and deep-layer shear will tend to limit the organized
   severe-thunderstorm threat, making watch issuance unlikely.

   ..Dean/Bunting.. 09/03/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36049986 36759905 37189785 37139669 36879621 36369617
               35909698 35589760 35309815 35119887 35159953 35299994
               36049986