Mesoscale Discussion 1722
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1125 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022

   Areas affected...far eastern New York into parts of New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 261625Z - 261830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong storms will develop after 17Z, moving
   from eastern New York into parts of New England. A few damaging
   gusts are most likely, and a weak/brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a low developing over far
   eastern NY, and just south of an early-day cluster of thunderstorms
   which stretches into VT. Meanwhile, a diffuse warm front extends
   eastward toward far southern ME, though mixing may lead to a
   northward repositioning later today.

   Heating and advection of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints has led to an
   uncapped and unstable air mass, with CAPE presently in the 1000-2000
   J/kg range. The strongest instability currently exists over southern
   New England where dewpoints are higher. Further, GPS PWAT sensors
   show a marked increase in overall moisture values through a deeper
   layer, approaching 1.50" near coastal CT.

   Convergence near the developing surface low and trailing surface
   trough and continued heating will lead to increasing storm coverage
   throughout the afternoon, progressing eastward. Deep-layer shear
   averaging near 35 kt, as well as veering winds with height suggest a
   several storms may be severe, producing a combination of damaging
   gusts and isolated hail. Steepening low-level lapse rates, and moist
   boundary layer, and weak SRH values could support a brief/weak
   tornado with the stronger isolated cells.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 08/26/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   41427435 42157405 43067354 43377319 43937184 43857078
               43587026 42397060 41767172 41427217 41157331 41097393
               41427435