ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 221903 
SPC MCD 221903 
LAZ000-TXZ000-222030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1712
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022

Areas affected...Central Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 221903Z - 222030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging gust or brief tornado will be
possible where convection encounters localized areas of greater
buoyancy. A watch is not expected this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Three bands of convection continue to move across
Louisiana into Mississippi associated with what appears to be a weak
frontal wave/MCV. Objective mesoanalysis has actually showed MLCAPE
values decreasing with time as each band of convection has cooled
the airmass successively. However, there are breaks in cloud cover
and surface observations do indicate pockets of mid/upper 80s F
temperatures. Recent KLCH/KPOE radar data show a stronger wind
signal now within Vernon Parish. The area just ahead of this
activity has warmed enough to support a threat for isolated damaging
wind gusts. Radar velocity data from this morning and afternoon have
not shown more than a couple of cells weakly rotating at low levels.
KPOE VWP does show increased low-level SRH and thus a brief spin-up
will remain possible should updrafts intensify enough. As convection
continues to the east, however, it will likely be impacted by cooler
outflow and the duration of overall severe threat will likely be
limited. A watch is not expected this afternoon.

..Wendt/Bunting.. 08/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31469372 31789297 32079231 32089195 31589158 31149202
            30759299 30749350 31469372 

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