Mesoscale Discussion 1676
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0737 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022

   Areas affected...West-central MT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 130037Z - 130200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts will be possible this
   evening. Watch issuance is possible if observational trends support
   a more organized severe wind risk.

   DISCUSSION...A loosely organized storm cluster has emerged from the
   higher terrain of western MT and is now approaching Great Falls and
   vicinity. The KTFX sounding was only weakly unstable (MLCAPE less
   than 500 J/kg), but large temperature/dewpoint spreads will support
   some threat for strong to severe wind gusts as this cluster moves
   eastward this evening, even if individual convective elements within
   the cluster are not particularly intense. 

   The relatively limited intensity of this cluster renders the need
   for a watch uncertain, but if short-term observational trends
   support a more organized severe-wind risk through the evening, watch
   issuance for parts of central MT will be possible.

   ..Dean/Goss.. 08/13/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TFX...

   LAT...LON   47741266 48161206 48371118 48281031 47670988 47220994
               46861001 46781036 46721072 46611110 46551165 46821197
               47131229 47741266