ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102008 
SPC MCD 102008 
IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-NVZ000-102245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1671
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Areas affected...Eastern OR...southeast WA...and southwest ID

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 102008Z - 102245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts may accompany
the stronger storms as they spread northward this afternoon into the
evening. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a mid/upper-level low off the coast of OR,
regional VWP is sampling 30-40 kt of midlevel south-southwesterly
flow overspreading eastern OR into southeast WA and southwest ID.
Here, filtered diurnal heating amid upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints
has reduced convective inhibition and is supporting isolated
convective development. While low-level flow is weak, the enhanced
mid/upper-level flow is contributing to a long/straight hodograph
(30-40 kt effective shear) supportive of splitting supercell
structures. The primary concern will be isolated large hail and
locally severe downdraft winds, though the threat appears too
localized for a watch.

..Weinman/Hart.. 08/10/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...OTX...PDT...

LAT...LON   42601648 42061674 41961821 42081897 42961923 43411933
            44091912 45011917 45911925 46161892 46401808 46401707
            45901683 43941666 42601648 

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