ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 081658 
SPC MCD 081658 
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-081830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1666
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Mon Aug 08 2022

Areas affected...Central/eastern NY...northwest CT...western
MA...and southern VT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 081658Z - 081830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging gusts with downbursts will be
possible this afternoon, but the threat appears to be too marginal
for a watch.

DISCUSSION...To the east of a midlevel perturbation and thicker
clouds over western NY, surface temperatures are warming into the
upper 80s/near 90 F, with boundary-layer dewpoints holding in the
lower 70s from central NY eastward.  Despite poor midlevel lapse
rates, MLCAPE has increased to 1000-1500 J/kg, with minimal
convective inhibition.  Weak ascent in advance of the subtle
midlevel trough and continued surface heating/mixing will support
widely scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon. 
Vertical shear is weak in the warm sector, but 20-30 kt westerly
flow in the 700-500 mb layer will support cells/multicell clusters
that will spread eastward.  Precipitation loading in the stronger
updrafts, in combination with steepening low-level lapse rates and
DCAPE near 1000 J/kg, will support the threat for a few strong
downbursts capable of producing isolated wind damage.

..Thompson/Hart.. 08/08/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   42047527 42267571 42727588 43087590 43487566 43807536
            43967460 44067354 44087299 44047285 43497242 42877250
            42257271 41827315 41607383 41957463 42047527 

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