Mesoscale Discussion 1662
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0703 PM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022

   Areas affected...Eastern Colorado and far Western Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 070003Z - 070130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A localized wind/hail threat will be possible with the
   strongest storms this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows widespread convective development
   along the front range that has largely remained
   transient/disorganized thus far, but is beginning to locally
   intensify as well as showing signs of cold pool development/cell
   merging. This activity is gradually propagating eastward where
   richer low-level moisture resides, associated with increasing
   instability (MLCAPE approaching 2500-3000 J/kg). Despite these
   favorable thermodynamic characteristics, vertical shear remains
   rather weak across the region, perhaps approaching 30 kt of
   effective bulk shear. Thus, a localized wind/hail threat appears
   possible this evening with the strongest storms. If upscale growth
   of the current activity can occur, a more persistent but still
   localized wind threat may emerge, particularly if this activity can
   propagate into northeast Colorado and far northwest Kansas where the
   axis of greater instability may support such a threat. For now,
   however, watch issuance is not anticipated.

   ..Karstens/Guyer.. 08/07/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   37940207 37690378 38610421 39370443 40020331 40260224
               39750132 37940207